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It's huge if you compare it to, say a trinket that procs int or something. There are badge trinkets that give you over 1000 AP reliably (equip trinkets seem to proc when I least need them, but never proc when I do want them... ie. bloodlust) and this is only 400 ap above that? The strength proc is really really good... the crit? well it's not bad by any means, but crit itemization for DKs are really on the low end of the scale... arp is great if you're blood, but what if it procs when you're unholy? OK unholy is making a bit more use out of arp in the patch, but it pales in comparison (still) to the benefit of haste. What happens if you get haste as blood?
My point is, say you're blood, and it procs 3 times with haste in a fight, but the next fight it procs 3 times with strength. Your dps numbers will be all over the place, meaning it's not really reliable, which is why I called it crappy.
It's stupid to call something crappy because it isn't regular. The lowest benefit proc (probably Agility) is still pretty good even for the worst spec for it (probably Frost).
And, like I said, this trinket lasts TWICE as long per proc as the 1K AP one. You are leaving that out in your analysis. That 400 AP is actually 800 (and even more if you get Str boosts). Plus, it's longer duration increases the chances that it will be active when you use Garg or DRW. It will be up a maximum of 67% of the time. The 1K AP one is up only a maximum of 33% of the time.
And, like you said, ArP is getting a buff for Unholy in the next patch. As you pointed out, it would have the lowest return in that spec. The passive buff on the 1K ap one is 288 points (288 AP). The 167 ArP is worth 330.x points. Not a huge buff, no. But it is superior.
And we'll look at the other values for Unholy:
The proc on the 510 Str trinket is worth 1555.5 points.
1400 AP is 1400 points.
700 Agi is 1141
700 Str (the best stat) is 2135.
700 crit is 1617.
700 ArP is 1386.
700 Haste (the worst stat) is 1071.
Two of them are better. One trails just behind (and ArP not quite 200 below) and 2 are only 66-73% as good (we aren't counting the passive bonuses here, which is superior for the various-chance trinket anyway).
Now, remember, the uptime is far superior for the unpredictable trinket. So, when we look at it that way, the Str is worth a max of 513.3 points.
The worst proc for the other trinket (haste) on the other hand, is a max of 717.57. Still superior.
I'm sorry, but math doesn't back up your claim. Yes, you MAY get stuck with a worse benefit during Heroism. But you are more likely to HAVE a benefit in the first place, and it will boost your character far more on its own merit in non-burst situations (you know, all that time NOT spent during heroism). And, with 4pc T9 disappearing, the need for a high-AP proc during Heroism is going to diminish for Blood, since refreshing our diseases (and spreading your sword's) at max AP will have a much lower return.
Unholy would gain from all of those pretty decently with Garg.
I fail to see how this trinket is worse. Is it unpredictable? Yes. But it gives more legroom than the 510 Str one, and all of it's bonuses are superior to that proc anyway, due to duration.