500k active playersFollow

Notice the player metrics.

We've got two abnormalities in stats. First is active players, with Balmung leading the pack in chracter activity, and Chocobo leading the pack in percentage Midas savage clears.

What's funny to pay attention to is how different the values are here.

The biggest 'hardcore' server, Chocobo, with it's clears, sits at 7.8%, with the next nearest competitor dropping down to 3.42%

Meanwhile the highest population server has a clear percentage of .29 % Second highest population server for characters has a win percentage of 1.73%

Overall % of Midas clears among ACTIVE characters: Roughly 1.14% or about 5700 people total.

Now I'm sure the number of mules and Alts (especially RP alts) alter the numbers a bit. But you can truncate the entire population of Balmung and not move the metric more than a percentage point.

Look again at the Census data. At certain points in the main quest-line you're given minions for completion. These are used as mile markers by the Census to determine player advancement. So we get markers for 20, 50, 55, 59, and various story-points at 60.

However, we are also coming up on The Rising event here soon, which may also release more Official Census data. We're about due at this point which will add and correct the unofficial data.

No need for me to state opinions I've already shared here. People can look at the data and derive what I think is happening and should be done.

This person has actually done several of these polls at different points, with no pattern of bias or certain agendas. You are right about there being a patch, but I doubt that would heavily swing the numbers -- especially not to the low numbers that some people were claiming.

Really, the numbers just look very close to what they looked like last year.

None of these counts are ever going to be accurate, but looking at the data it's pretty safe to say the game has close to 500k active players right now. I'd also safely wager that we'll see another huge influx of people returning when 4.0 hits, just like they did when 3.0 hits.

Edited, Aug 17th 2016 9:07am by Thayos

Those people are few and far between. Most people know the "millions of registered users" has nothing to do with subs.

These numbers aren't poor at all, though. They could be better, for sure, but Yoshi-P has stated in the past that 500k active subs is essentially the game's target playerbase. And that number is likely going to shoot up again once 4.0 is released.

In the meantime, we'll undoubtedly dip well below 500k as 4.0 draws nearer, but that's also to be expected. Many people who don't enjoy the gear grind resub at expansions or patches.

Hopefully the new expansion will be good and it can bring back the lost players.

Edited, Aug 18th 2016 5:22am by Runespider

Oh how glib of you! Such a razor sharp wit you have. I am sure square enix is stinging terribly from such painfully origional and critical of statements.

Seriously guys, give it a rest. We get it. You aren't achieving anything whatsoever by being that bitter here of all places. Each one of you could just wave and say *insert my typical remarks here. Ane everyone could mqke five different yet still thematically accurate statements in your own wording.

I am seriously considering just making that thread that weekend.

That's why, until SE releases actual numbers, we'll never know. I'm one to log in every time they have a welcome back campaign, so I'm probably counted in this process. I've only actually subbed for one month in the last year though. I'm sure a ton of people fall into this category.

Yep, for the purpose of unofficial parsing you count. Anyone who logged in on the free login counts if they were part of the scan. My 8 characters count as they're active. My friend's 16 RP characters count as they're active. Pretty much anyone who just so much as look at the game with a trial counts.

This is why we need SE's numbers because only they (legally) can count unique logins, which is what will get you the actual sub number.

Just FYI, the reason I've said that about 500k is because that's what Yoshi-P said would be an ideal long-term playerbase. So it's not really about what I think as much as what SE has said is acceptable.

I expect the active playerbase to dip well below that over the remainder of 3.x, but that doesn't worry me because the same thing happened at the end of 2.x, and I'm sure SE is planning on that again. This is just me guessing, but my assumption on Yoshi-P's 500k figure is that he views that as more of an average rather than a set monthly total. Like, if an expansion cycle starts with 800k subs and ends with 300k subs, he'd probably be fine with that because the average monthly subs would be 500k over the entire cycle. With a strong vertical game like this, it's only logical that more people will leave as the expansion cycle nears its end. However, just like when 3.x launched, I expect a surge of people to return (and subscribe) to try out the new expansion.

Here's where the game could be in trouble... while XIV has no trouble getting new players, it definitely has a problem keeping people around. And that's why I argue we need a more diverse endgame than just hardcore raiding, because most gamers aren't raiders and they don't find endgame interesting (raid participation rates weren't really much better with coil, either).

XIV won't be able to keep getting droves of new players forever; that's a luxury of the game still being relatively new. But the game won't really be new anymore with 4.x, and that influx of new players will start tapering off. Retention will become far more critical. If SE fails to retain new players, then we could be right back in this position next year but with 300k players instead of 500k... and THAT would be a problem.

So right now -- while not everything is hunky dory -- things aren't bad, either. But it's pretty clear that next year could be bad unless SE does a better job of prioritizing the needs of its players.

I'm still somewhat optimistic because of content like Diadem and Deep Dungeons. We're starting to see SE implement new types of content that break the average player's grind of tome dungeons/24-man raid/story mode raid. Extreme primals and savage/extreme raids are always going to be somewhat inaccessible for most players, but SE has shown signs of acknowledging this and creating more for the bulk of the playerbase to do. But we really still need some kind of compelling progression-oriented endgame that amounts to more than something you spam with a bunch of randoms. We really need content that takes full advantage of the game's FC infrastructure.

Think about how many people stuck around in FFXI just for the people. There are hundreds of thousands of people who play this game, and SE has failed to provide substantial content that encourages people to form server communities and cooperate outside of exclusionary statics. People don't want to have to play the game like a second job -- they just want to play.

Edited, Aug 23rd 2016 3:02pm by Thayos